British general elections

Louis
May 4, 2015
4 min read

So, as the UK elections are coming close Labour and Tory are in the lead. But the battle for third place is getting tougher, as Ukip are in the lead at the moment closely followed by the Greens and the Lib Dems. Let's have a look:

Key : Labour

Tory

Ukip

Green

Lib Dem

2010 results:

Who's going to win?

The most likely answer is that no-one will win, at least not with a majority. It looks like being the tightest general election for decades, and some polls are even suggesting that there could be a dead heat, with Labour and the Conservatives ending up with the same number of seats.

The current voting system

Under the existing first-past-the-post system, national polling only tells part of the picture. A party whose support is concentrated in certain areas will pick up far more seats than a party with the same number of votes spread evenly around the country.

How does First Past The Post work?

Under First Past The Post (FPTP) voting takes place in constituencies that elect a single MP. Voters put a cross in a box next to their favoured candidate and the candidate with the most votes in the constituency wins. All other votes count for nothing.

Pros and cons of First Past The Post

The cases for:

It's simple to understand and thus doesn't cost much to administer.

It doesn't take very long to count all the votes and work out who's won, meaning results can be declared a handful of hours after polls close.

The voter can clearly express a view on which party they think should form the next government.

The arguments against:

Representatives can get elected on tiny amounts of public support as it does not matter by how much they win, only that they get more votes than other candidates.

It encourages tactical voting, as voters vote not for the candidate they most prefer, but against the candidate they most dislike.

FPTP in effect wastes huge numbers of votes, as votes cast in a constituency for losing candidates, or for the winning candidate above the level they need to win that seat, count for nothing.

As opposed to Proportional Representation which is a system in which the number of seats held by members of a political party in a parliament is determined by the number of votes its candidates receive in an election. The objection to it is that it denies the possibility of one party being the single strong party of government and would give power to small / centrist parties. Well actually, – that’s exactly what we have had for a long time and will go on getting. It means we pretend before the election that one party will win and then in private after we vote – a deal is struck for five years that none of us had any say in; this naturally alienates voters . As things stand we could have another coalition no one wants or voted for - or a minority government with 30% of the vote on a 60% turnout - what a lot of wasted votes.

The days of the party’s singular right to power have gone. Over the last three decades First Past The Post has forced Labour to pander only to the needs of a few swing voters – so its policies have been weak .

Proportional voting would allow the debate about the necessary compromises of todays multi-party politics to be aired and decided before the election – by the people. PR would recognize that some people want to vote Green or vote to the left of Labour and they should have the right to representation. Trying to deny this just builds up pressure that will explode somewhere and that somewhere is ugly – UKIP.

The campaign has officialy started and the parties have published their manifestos. They're views on the main issues are :

Conservative

Main pledges

Eliminate the deficit and be running a surplus by the end of the Parliament
Extra £8bn above inflation for the NHS by 2020
Extend Right to Buy to housing association tenants in England
Legislate to keep people working 30 hours on minimum wage out of tax
30 hours of free childcare per week for working parents of 3&4-year-olds
Referendum on Britain’s EU membership

Labour

Main pledges

Responsibility "triple lock": fully funded manifesto, cut the deficit every year, balance the books as soon as possible in next Parliament
Extra £2.5bn for NHS, largely paid for by a mansion tax on properties valued at over £2m
Raise minimum wage to more than £8ph by 2019
No rise in VAT, NI or basic and higher rates of income tax
Access to childcare from 8am-6pm for parents of primary school children
Freeze energy bills until 2017 and give energy regulator new powers to cut bills this winter

UKIP

Main pledges

Rapid referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union
Control immigration with points system, limit of 50,000 skilled workers a year and a five-year ban on unskilled immigration
Extra £3bn a year for the NHS in England
No tax on the minimum wage
Meet Nato target of spending 2% of GDP on defence, and look to increase it “substantially”

Lib Dems

Main pledges

Balance the budget fairly through a mixture of cuts and taxes on higher earners
Increase tax-free allowance to £12,500
Guarantee education funding from nursery to 19 with an extra £2.5bn and qualified teachers in every class
Invest £8bn in the NHS. Equal care for mental & physical health
Five new laws to protect nature and fight climate change

Green

Main pledges

End austerity and restore the public sector, creating jobs that pay at least a living wage
End privatisation of the National Health Service
Work with other countries to ensure global temperatures do not rise by more than 2C
£85bn programme of home insulation, renewable electricity generation & flood defences
Provide 500,000 social homes for rent by 2020 and control rent levels
Return the railways to public hands